Morning Bites (part 2) 🏆Global physical gold demand declined 4% YoY to 1,014t in 3Q26 (but was 18% higher YoY in value terms, as gold prices were up 23% YoY in 3Q26), vs. the revised 8% YoY increase in 2Q26, per World Gold Council data. Specifically, gold jewellery and bars&coins demand both dropped 19% YoY in 3Q26, but central bank purchases surged 42% YoY, partly offsetting the negative effect Total gold demand also fell 4% YoY in 3Q26 in volume terms, as global ETF purchases moderately decreased (-6% YoY in 3Q26), affected by expectations of tighter monetary policy in the US. Meanwhile, world mined gold output inched up 1% YoY in 3Q26 #gold

Morning Bites (part 1) 🇨🇱Chile’s copper output declined 15% YoY in September, vs. the 13% YoY drop in August, per INE data. The contraction reflected mining accidents, and weather and operational disruptions, as well as the compounding effect of years of underinvestment and declining ore grades at aging mines. Meanwhile, on a 9mo26 basis, local Cu output was also down 9% YoY To recap, Cochilco expects Chilean copper supply (~24% of global mined Cu) to reach 5.3mnt in 2026 (-3% YoY). It also forecasts a moderate recovery to 5.5mnt in 2027. Given the actual 9mo26 dynamics, we think this guidance is unduly sanguine and see room for underperformance We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers) #copper

Morning Bites 🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-October declined to 1.894mnt, down 2.3% vs. the previous ten days and 6.0% lower YoY. CISA data show that local production dropped 5.4% YTD (through 20 October). Meanwhile, local steel inventories were up 1.5% over the period, also being 3.9% higher YoY Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe that Beijing will continue gradually tightening supply. Although the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, China could potentially introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacity was removed) to accelerate market rebalancing, we believe For instance, Beijing has recently imposed a more stringent steel capacity swap plan to curb oversupply. Per a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statement, at least 1.5t of old steel capacity must now be decommissioned to build ⁠every 1.0t of new capacity nationwide #steel