The stealth bear market The index is hiding an enormous amount of damage. @GoldmanSachs notes that while the S&P 500 was just 3% below its all-time high, 60% of its constituents were already in bear-market territory. The Mag 7 had lost $4 trillion in market cap since October 15, while former AI winners were being crushed. Oracle was down 50% from its peak, Arm 49% and Broadcom 31%. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117746881522802969

$PLTR https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117683392989032609

The midterm tailwind According to @jpmorgan's Market Intelligence team, history suggests the US midterms could provide a much-needed boost to equities. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 5.4%, 11.4%, 12.5% and 14.7% over the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a 100% positive hit rate at 6, 9 and 12 months. Meanwhile, @jpmorgan argues the recent de-risking is not quite capitulatory, with quant selling and elevated tech positioning still posing risks. However, widespread deleveraging and momentum exposure collapsing to just 30% of its peak suggest the stage may be set for an alpha rebound. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117293936272445553