The same trade, a third time. For the third time in three weeks, the same trade: Treasuries bought, bitcoin sold. Brent trades near $112, close to its four-year high of $114.44 from May, on reports that US and Israeli strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms and on attacks claimed against Aramco facilities. Tech sold off again after megacap earnings, with AI spending under scrutiny. Treasuries took the safety bid: the 10-year fell to 5.03% today. Bitcoin was on the other side of that bid again, and is back near 81,700. The rates framework has delivered its verdict. Friday's weekly close at 5.08% was the second below the 5.26% close of June 2007. On the framework we published, the 2007 level is now resistance. The 10-year is back near 5%, the level it accepted on 23 September. Markets price a hold at next week's Fed meeting, near 90%, with a December hike still the more likely path. On bitcoin, price traded up to 84,840 on Wednesday, above 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost on 8 October, then gave the move back within a day. A print is not acceptance. It is the second failed attempt on the level in a week, after the CPI-day rally stalled just beneath it. Near 81,700, price is 35% retraced of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, remains the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance above 84,047 is still what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is what changes the structure. Positioning: unchanged and balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in HBAR, XLM and AVAX; cash the balance. Disclosure: we hold a short BTC position at the time of writing. The zone and its invalidation were published before the position. ————————— Capital Flow Tech is a commercial brand operated by C.FT Ltd, providing algorithmic trading software and API-based deployment infrastructure. C.FT Ltd does not provide investment advice, portfolio management or discretionary financial services. Levels and invalidations, not calls.

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Inflation ran hot. Bonds rallied. On Tuesday we set out how to read this week's CPI: headline was expected to run on energy, and a core surprise was the outcome that would change the reading. Core surprised. September core prices rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected, taking the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.4%. Headline rose 0.6%, to 3.7%, with gasoline up 9.1% and accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. Producer prices followed on Thursday, up 6.3% on the year, the most since December 2022. The bond market did the opposite of what a core surprise implies. The 10-year spiked to 5.33% after the release, above the 5.26% close of June 2007, and reversed the same day. It trades near 5.10% today. A print is not acceptance. Tech lost more than a trillion dollars of market value in about a week, and Treasuries were bought as the safe asset. A long end that rallies through a hot core print fears the tightening more than the inflation. Markets have moved an October hike back into play, near 30%, with December still the more likely move. The 10-year is on course for a second weekly close below 5.26%. On the framework we published, that turns the 2007 close into resistance. Bitcoin did not trade with bonds. It traded with tech. The CPI-day rally stalled near 84,000, just beneath 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost the week before, and Thursday's slide made a lower low near 79,800. That is the second time in two weeks that Treasuries were bought and bitcoin was sold. The retest from below failed. Price near 81,500 is 34% retraced of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. Rejection keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance back above 84,047 is what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure. Positioning: balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in HBAR, XLM and AVAX; AVAX was opened and HBAR added when bitcoin traded near 80,000 this week; cash the balance. Disclosure: we hold a short BTC position at the time of writing. The zone and its invalidation were published before the position. ————————— Capital Flow Tech is a commercial brand operated by C.FT Ltd, providing algorithmic trading software and API-based deployment infrastructure. C.FT Ltd does not provide investment advice, portfolio management or discretionary financial services. Levels and invalidations, not calls.