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The world in 24 hours

Brazil heads for another vote, Iran changes its oil chief, and Japan’s central bank weighs the AI boom.

Brazil’s election goes to a runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face each other on October 25 after neither won a majority in Sunday’s first round, Brazil’s electoral court confirmed. Bolsonaro finished ahead, but the presidency remains undecided. Both campaigns now have three weeks to win over voters who backed other candidates, with living costs and public security among the central issues.

A new caretaker for Iran’s oil ministry
President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad’s resignation and appointed state oil-company chief Hamid Bovard as acting minister. State media attributed the departure to personal reasons; a presidential official said the request had been submitted earlier. The leadership change comes under wartime pressure, but the announcement itself does not establish a change in oil-production policy.

The AI boom faces a profit test
In a speech today, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said AI investment is boosting demand while rising share prices ease financial conditions. He also warned of a correction if profits fail to follow. The productivity gains could matter for interest rates over time, but their scale and timing remain uncertain. This was an assessment of AI’s economic effects, not a new rate decision.

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Oil on paper

Seven core OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to keep November oil production targets unchanged. Saudi Arabia, Russia and their five partners will meet again on November 1.

The bigger constraint is getting oil to buyers. Reuters reports that Gulf producers are pumping below their quotas because the war involving the US, Israel and Iran continues to disrupt exports. A production target is permission to pump; it is not a delivery receipt.

The group's monitoring committee also warned that repairing damaged energy infrastructure is costly and slow. It stressed the importance of secure shipping routes.

For airlines, hauliers and households, an unchanged quota offers no guarantee of cheaper fuel. The practical test is whether more barrels can reach refineries and customers. Today's decision leaves the targets steady while those physical constraints remain.

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Aid meets the factory floor
Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv as air-raid sirens and explosions sounded across the city. Germany’s chancellor brought Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and executives from energy and defence companies, putting industrial cooperation alongside financial support.
German officials told Reuters he planned to announce the release of €1 billion in military aid and €350 million for energy repairs. An agreement on joint drone production was also expected to be finalised. Those are reported plans, not confirmation that money or equipment has arrived.
The visit brings two urgent needs together: protecting Ukrainian cities and keeping essential infrastructure working. Kyiv’s mayor said a strike on the Northern Bridge also damaged a hot-water supply system. Joint production could help turn support into a more sustained supply of equipment; its practical value will depend on contracts, factory capacity and delivery dates.
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The world in 24 hours

Latvia counts its votes, Brazil closes its campaign, and Bosnia prepares to put new voting technology to work.

Latvia’s winner still needs partners
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List has taken more than a third of counted votes, preliminary results reported by public broadcaster LSM show. Its leaders say they will approach existing coalition partners first. That is a stronger electoral position, not a completed governing deal: the final seat distribution and coalition negotiations still matter for budgets and security policy.

Brazil reaches the ballot box
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro ended their campaigns on Saturday with rival shows of support ahead of today’s presidential vote. Both sounded confident; Reuters reports that polls point to a likely runoff. If nobody wins more than half of valid votes, the top two meet again on October 25. Campaign crowds and predictions do not settle the result.

Bosnia tests a new voting system
A campaign silence period began Saturday ahead of today’s general election. The election commission says this is the country’s first election using biometric voter identification, ballot scanners and rapid results transmission. More than 3.4 million voters are registered. The operational test now is how those systems perform as voters choose the presidency and multiple layers of government.

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Unity under strain
Germany’s president used reunification day to warn that extremist rhetoric and disinformation were threatening the country’s cohesion. Frank-Walter Steinmeier raised the danger of divisions resembling the Weimar era, while making no explicit reference to a political party.
The warning follows September state elections in which the AfD came first in two eastern states. But Steinmeier also challenged established politicians: they should examine what governments have failed to do, including on unemployment and eastern Germans’ access to influential positions.
His answer combined a defence of democratic rights with a call for economic renewal. This was a presidential warning, not a new law or an announced ban. The practical test falls to governments: rebuilding confidence while delivering reforms in a divided country.
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Latvia’s coalition test

Latvians are voting for a new parliament, with support for Ukraine and the cost of living competing for attention on NATO’s eastern flank.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs wants to keep defence spending at 5% of GDP. Sovereign Power, one of his leading rivals, wants to end aid to Ukraine and prioritise domestic costs, Reuters reports. These are campaign positions; the next government is still undecided.

The harder contest may come after the count. Polls point to a fragmented parliament, so coalition partners could shape how much of either programme becomes policy. Winning the most votes would not guarantee control of the government.

Polling stations in Latvia close at 8pm local time. The result will matter beyond Riga: allies will be watching who can assemble a governing majority and sustain its commitments.

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