📝 Alarming Demographic Projections 📝
What will Russia’s population look like by 2050?
A new study by the Center for Migration Trends Analysis indicates that by 2050 the country will face a radical shift in its ethno-demographic balance. Experts forecast a reduction in the number of ethnic Russians by roughly 25%, from current levels to approximately 90 million people.
🔻 Projected changes by 2050 and their implications:
▪️ The population of ethnic Russians and other indigenous peoples will continue to decline, forming a stable negative trend.
▪️ Natural population loss will be offset by migration: the share of migrants from Central Asia is expected to grow from 7.8 to 19.2 million. The total number of migrants will exceed the population of several indigenous ethnic groups, including Tatars, Bashkirs, and Chechens.
▪️ To compensate for demographic losses, millions of migrants will need to be attracted from countries that were not previously major “donor” states. Around 12 million people are expected to arrive from new regions to cover labor shortages.
▪️ Stable ethnic enclaves will emerge, reshaping the ethno-cultural structure of major cities. For example, in some Moscow municipalities the share of migrants could reach 50%, with an average of around 30% across the megapolis
🖍 Experts’ recommendations are predictable: abolishing patent systems, accelerating robotization, reviewing previously granted citizenships, tighter migration controls, and increased accountability for businesses. However, mechanical measures do not address the core issue — Russia is losing its indigenous population faster than it can adapt to new realities.
🚩 A reliance on mass migration without assimilation and without prioritizing ethnic Russians and other indigenous peoples is transforming the urban environment and creating risks similar to the British scenario. The demographic pit is deeper than it appears, while migration-driven growth merely masks the scale of decline rather than resolving it.
🏳️ If the state does not pursue active repatriation of the Russian population, by mid-century society may face a new ethno-cultural configuration in which the Russian demographic majority is significantly reduced.
❗️ Some measures are reflected in newly adopted framework documents — the Migration Policy Concept and the National Policy Strategy. Declining birth rates are now affecting even developing countries, but authorities still have the capacity to at least preserve the current ethno-cultural framework.
In the context of population aging, shrinking working-age cohorts, and a sharply rising burden on social systems, having several children may soon once again become the key factor determining security and well-being in old age.
#migration #multiculturalism #Russia
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