The 1973 oil embargo — which lasted only five months — profoundly reshaped the global economy. ⛽
It gave rise to mass adoption of compact cars, accelerated the development of electric transport, and pushed engineers to improve the efficiency of engines powered by fossil fuels.
Whether the conflict around Iran ends today or drags on for years, it has already demonstrated one crucial reality: every third ton of exported oil can disappear from the market at any moment, depending on the decisions of just one or two actors.
As in the 1970s, the primary beneficiary of another Middle Eastern crisis for the United States may ultimately be alternative energy. One likely outcome is the construction of a new generation of coal-fired power plants operating at ultra-supercritical temperatures, including in Europe and the U.S. This could be followed by another intense — and perhaps excessive — race toward solar and wind energy, along with further electrification of transportation. ⚡
Yet the biggest beneficiary of turmoil in the Middle East may again become civil nuclear power. The 1973 embargo triggered a powerful push toward the widespread adoption of uranium-based energy, which is why much of the nuclear reactor fleet in developed countries today dates back to the 1970s and 1980s.
Later, however, the Middle East stabilized, while the Chernobyl disaster demonstrated the stark difference between accidents at nuclear facilities and those at coal plants or refineries. Nuclear incidents carry the risk of radiation exposure and potentially tens of thousands of victims, whereas industrial accidents in fossil-fuel facilities usually result in far fewer casualties. At the same time, burning oil and gas proved economically more efficient than maintaining a complex nuclear industry. ⚠️
The result of decades of Western retreat from nuclear power can be seen today: every second nuclear reactor currently under construction in the world is being built in China. Meanwhile, in developed countries, only six reactors are presently under construction — in the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Slovakia.
Viewed from another angle, China appears to have long anticipated instability in the Middle East and has been preparing systematically for such a scenario. For much of the developed world — particularly Europe — the events now unfolding around Iran seem to have come as a surprise.
In other words, strategic planning horizons appear to stretch only a day or two ahead, while the effectiveness of intelligence services looks close to zero.
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