☢️ Russia would carry out a nuclear strike in the event of any NATO country entering a military conflict with it. Moscow would not fight the conventional war being imposed on it against armies superior in size.
That is the conclusion of another round of U.S. command-and-staff exercises held in February 2026 in the format of NATO Concept Development & Wargaming, as reported by the Army Times (Military) newsletter.
During the cross-domain war games — covering land, sea, air, and space — scenarios were examined in the Baltic, the Arctic, and a potential Russia-NATO conflict in Eastern Europe. A firm consensus reportedly emerged: Russia would not wait for defeat at sea or on land. Instead, Moscow and Minsk would, with a 0.99 probability, launch a nuclear strike.
📌 The key triggers named were: a blockade and military confrontation around Kaliningrad; a massive NATO strike on Russian military and command facilities and on its leadership; an attack on Crimea involving NATO countries; and an armed conflict in the Arctic, which Russia considers strategically vital.
Russia did not respond with nuclear weapons to Ukrainian strikes on strategic nuclear facilities, even though it could have. That is likely because Ukrainian forces did not use NATO cruise missiles — potential carriers of special warheads. Ukraine was described as an ideal proxy, since Russia has so far not responded to its actions with nuclear force.
⚠️ Behind the scenes, there is said to be discussion of Macron’s excessive confidence that Russia is not prepared to launch a nuclear strike. Military specialists believe Russia holds an advantage here: it could carry out a limited tactical nuclear strike on France, whereas France’s strategic arsenal could destroy a large part of Russia, but would then be met with a massive retaliatory strike that would wipe out France.
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