According to preliminary assessments, today’s strike on Bryansk was likely carried out by a flight of Su-24M/MR aircraft based at the Starokostiantynovka airbase.
Russia has been striking this airfield since the very first days of the war, attempting to destroy Ukrainian aircraft that are reportedly hidden inside the so-called “proper” hardened aircraft shelters. These reinforced shelters can withstand direct hits from most drones currently in service. In practice, they can only be reliably destroyed by a direct hit from heavy weapons such as an Iskander or Kinzhal missile, or anything capable of striking the shelter precisely with a warhead of more than 250 kg.
There is always a theoretical chance of hitting the shelter doors, which are often left open at many facilities, but there has been no confirmed case of this successfully happening.
In theory, with sufficient strike capabilities, an airfield could be rendered temporarily unusable by repeatedly damaging the runway, preventing aircraft from taking off or landing. However, this does not appear to be happening on a regular basis. One possible explanation is the limited accuracy of certain strike systems and the high daily expenditure of munitions required to maintain such pressure.
Another challenge is the large number of shelters, which complicates reconnaissance, makes it difficult to identify operational aircraft, and therefore complicates selecting the correct target shelter.
Most likely, after today’s strike, another retaliatory attack on the airbase will follow, with the usual reports that all designated targets were successfully hit.
And tomorrow, aircraft will probably take off from that airfield again.
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