🚨 BIG WARNING: THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD BE EXTREMELY VOLATILE
Two major U.S. events are hitting almost back-to-back — and both can rapidly reprice risk across stocks, crypto, and rates.
1️⃣ Supreme Court of the United States tariff ruling
🕙 10:00 am ET
The Court will decide whether Donald Trump tariffs are legal.
Markets are pricing a ~77% chance they’re ruled illegal.
If struck down:
• The U.S. may need to refund part of $600B+ already collected
• Alternative tools exist, but they’re slower and weaker
• Sentiment risk is key: markets currently treat tariffs as supportive
➡️ A negative ruling could trigger risk-off, hitting crypto too
2️⃣ U.S. Unemployment data
🕣 8:30 am ET
Consensus: 4.5% (from 4.6%)
• Higher unemployment → recession fears rise
• Lower unemployment → recession fears ease, but rate cuts get pushed out
• Odds of a January cut are already ~11% — strong jobs could kill that hope
⚠️ The dilemma:
• Weak data = recession narrative
• Strong data = tight policy for longer
Together, these make the next 24 hours a high-risk window.
Expect volatility. Manage positions accordingly.